If you don’t remember who Richard Stiennon is, think back to a few years ago and see if you can remember the words, “IDSs are dead”. Ring a bell? He is an analyst at Gartner focusing on security. I met him several years ago, although I’m sure he would have no idea who I am now, even though I accurately predicted the rise of the event correlation (SIM) services. Well, I found his blog almost by accident today and his most recent post actually turned out to be fairly interesting. He wrote about the top 10 threats for 2007. He was a little scattered in the topics he went into but most of them were pretty interesting to discuss. Here are some of my thoughts:
His second and third prediction is that DDoS in support of Phishing and fraud will become a big deal in 2007. I really don’t see this one happening. I get what he’s saying, but DDoS is noisy, and doesn’t actually aid in phishing. Plus if the bad guys have compromised servers why not use them for more phishing, which is far more lucrative than shutting down a server (except in the random cases of extortion - “pay me $10k and I’ll let your server come back up”). I just don’t believe this is happening all that often. They bad guys can make $10k per phishing incident. It’s way more scalable to stick to phishing. I only know of two cases where DDoS extortion has happened, and both of them were online casinos.
He suggests in his fourth bullet that DNS will be a huge target over the coming year. Maybe. It’s hard to say, especially since it’s far easier to let it work for you in the case of XSS malware. I’m not sure I agree with this since there are easier ways to attack a target. But you never know. I also thought pharming would never be a big deal when everyone was hyping that one up and… er… no wait, it never was.
His seventh bullet talks about MySpace having to grow up and become more secure like the rest of their competitors. I don’t know that I agree that this is the 7th largest threat in 2007 (shutting down one community site) but I think the ramifications of why this is happening is easily within the top 10. He’s got a good point here. I think something that we have not spent enough time thinking about is the downstream impact of these types of issues to large businesses. Could a few XSS holes literally shut down a billion dollar company? That’s a big deal.
Number eight is also about XSS although Richard doesn’t mention the word. He talks about backdooring media files (pdp’s backdooring quicktime files and Mp3 files, no doubt) as well as spam advertising inside of the movie files. I would hardly call this the eight biggest threat on the Internet, because the files can be scanned for the backdoor and who cares if there is a little spam. It’s not a big threat to the Internet. So, unfortunately I think he’s way off on this one.
Number nine is about how the global network infrastructure is showing signs of strain under the new heavy weight content of the dynamic internet. I doubt this really will mean much to anyone other than more use of content delivery networks as well as additional money for the carriers who lay fiber (which was his comment).
His number ten threat is that Vista isn’t going to do anything in terms of Security. Well, that’s probably true, but that’s not a new threat, that’s just not an increase in security to match the increase in level of attacks against the new platform. But who wants to go after desktop machines when everyone is putting their information online anyway? That’s where the real money is. The only reason people go after home computers these days is to install keyloggers and turn them into spam/phishing machines. Also, the bigger issue is that everything is becoming web enabled. Alas, we’re going to see a lot more high profile information disclosures next year is my prediction. So I think he had the right idea, but he didn’t take it to the next obvious place.
I don’t mean to put Richard down here - he’s a very bright guy. Unfortunately, I think this year he spent too much time talking to a few people who didn’t have their pulse on the real issues. No doubt 2007 will be interesting though. I’m looking forward to it.